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Not really a rollout rollout

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 4:06 p.m.

In Response To: Not really a rollout rollout (Stick)

Per your RO results, two to the ace gives your side 3.71% extra wins, 4.5% extra net gammon losses, and 0.91% extra net bg losses. These numbers make it correct at a moneylike score where the g/bg prices are .5/1.0 since 3.71% > .5*4.5% + 0.91%. How about ATS? With a centered cube, the g and bg values are quite a bit different from money. The g price is around .75 and the bg price around 2.0. If the cube gets turned, g's return to their normal .5 price and bg's become worthless. If all games ended with the cube unturned, 18/7 would be correct since 3.71% < 3.375% + 1.82%. If they all ended with the cube on 2, two to the ace would be correct.

So what's the correct play? Not really sure but I'd choose the burial play. The static analysis in the above paragraph doesn't take into account the fact that your extra winning chances from 7/1 6/1 should allow you to cube more often and this gain is not included in the extra wins vs. extra g/bg formula. The vig from these extra cubing chances is usually enough to make the play that gives the most wins correct even if the extra wins are somewhat less than half of the extra g losses + all of the extra bg losses. It's also the reason you frequently can profitably play on for a gammon even if your gammon chances are somewhat less than twice your losing chances.

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