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Play A "loses more gammons"

Posted By: Matt Ryder
Date: Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 5:37 p.m.

In Response To: Play A "loses more gammons" (Timothy Chow)

I would argue, however, that typically we're more interested in actual gammon wins as opposed to cubeless gammon wins. When calculating whether to take a cube ATS, one takes wins and adds/subtracts gammon wins/losses multiplied by the appropriate gammon price to compare with the raw take point; in this calculation, actual wins and actual gammons are what we should really stick in and not cubeless gammons.

Hi Tim,

I've failed to convince you in past discussions, but I'll take one more crack at it.

When the cube is active, the "actual" gammon rate is much lower than in cubeless scenarios. If I drop your cube, for example, the gammon rate (obviously) plunges to zero. If I take, there's a greater chance that I can cash later on - also reducing the overall gammon chance. If we're playing with Jacoby, it behooves me to cash much earlier, again reducing gammons.

But when evaluating a cube ATS, it's useless to me (and misleading) if the bot reports a gammon rate of zero just because the bot knows this is a big drop. In making the decision to drop, I need to know my gammon chances were I to take. That's why a cubeless evaluation is of greater relevance (which is not of course to say the cubeful information should be ignored either).

Messages In This Thread

• Play A "loses more gammons"
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:33 p.m.
  • Play A "loses more gammons"
    Tom Keith -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 5:27 p.m.
    • Play A "loses more gammons"
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 3:59 a.m.
  • Play A "loses more gammons"
    Matt Ryder -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 5:37 p.m.
    • Play A "loses more gammons"
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 3:38 a.m.
      • Slight correction
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 4:15 a.m.
      • Play A "loses more gammons"
        Matt Ryder -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 6:06 a.m.
        • Play A "loses more gammons"
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 6:54 p.m.
          • Play A "loses more gammons"
            NJ -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 3:15 a.m.
          • Play A "loses more gammons"
            Matt Ryder -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 5:28 a.m.
  • Play A "loses more gammons"
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 7:07 p.m.
    • Play A "loses more gammons"
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 3:44 a.m.
      • Play A "loses more gammons"
        Bob Koca -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 4:33 a.m.
        • Play A "loses more gammons"
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 4:52 a.m.
          • Play A "loses more gammons"
            Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 2:30 p.m.
            • Play A "loses more gammons"
              Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 7:24 p.m.
              • Play A "loses more gammons"
                Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 8:47 p.m.
          • Play A "loses more gammons"
            Bob Koca -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 6:44 p.m.
  • Question for fans of cubelessness
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 3:53 a.m.
    • Question for fans of cubelessness
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 3:59 a.m.
      • Question for fans of cubelessness
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 4:04 a.m.