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BGonline.org Forums
Play A "loses more gammons"
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Play A "loses more gammons" (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Monday, 18 January 2010, at 7:24 p.m.
Daniel Murphy wrote:
In other words, in this position Blue wins 61.9% cubeless but doesn't have a redouble. Without referencing the cubeless win percentage, how else would I describe it?
The other way to describe it is the one you yourself suggested: Blue wins 61.96% of the time after ND and 52.77% after D/T.
And do I really need to also know that with the cube in play Blue wins 61.96% after ND and 52.77% after D/T?
Well, I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "need to know." Do I need to know that Blue wins 61.9% cubeless? What good is that information? If all I want to know is that Blue doesn't have a double then it's true I don't need to know the details of how often Blue wins after ND or after D/T, but it's also true that I don't need to know (and am not enlightened by) the fact that Blue wins 61.9% cubeless. On the other hand, if I want to know how wrong doubling would be, then I do need to know some numbers. And the numbers I want are "ND 61.96%" and "D/T 52.77%" not "cubeless 61.9%". I'm still not seeing what good the 61.9% cubeless figure is. It's true that it's independent of match score and cube location, which is nice I guess, but if I can't derive what I want to know from it, what good is it?
But note that if I do want to know these numbers, I can calculate them both (including the obvious 52.77%) from the cubeful equities the bot has given me.
True, but I don't see the relevance of your observation here. We weren't talking about whether the cubeful equities being reported were of any use (I fully agree that they are useful), but whether the cubeless equities are of any use.
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