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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 2:09 a.m.

In Response To: Money game cube action (Timothy Chow)

OTB, it looked to me that if I safetied the blot and White rolled something average then on my next turn it would be D/P. In other words I was afraid of losing my market. So I doubled; my opponent took, and I rolled 2-1. Yuck. Eventually I did win, after a couple of jokers and anti-jokers on both sides that cancelled each other out.

The rollout suggests that it's ND/T, but that the decision is close. I also rolled out the position with my blot lifted to the midpoint, and the result was one of those bot anomalies: "Too good to double" in a money game with Jacoby and the cube centered. Not sure if this is a strong enough indication that the bot is misplaying things for us to distrust the first rollout.

tchow on roll, cube decision?

gnubg150


 ' ' '2X1X3X '2X1O2X2X2O

 ' ' '1X2X5O2O3O2O ' ' '

tchow128

Position ID: WGc2gAXg2w0jAA Match ID: cAkAAEAAEAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.500
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.859
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.141
3.Double, take +0.838 -0.021
Proper cube action:No double, take (12.9%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.7290.0780.001-0.2710.0370.001 +0.500 +0.859
Standard error0.0010.0010.003-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.008
Player gnubg owns 2-cube0.7340.0800.001-0.2660.0360.001 +1.025 +0.838
Standard error0.0010.0020.009-0.0010.0010.000 0.007 0.010
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845183267 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


Here's the rollout of the variant position.

tchow on roll, cube decision?

gnubg150


 ' ' '2X1X3X '2X '2X2X3O

 ' ' '1X2X5O2O3O2O ' ' '

tchow125

Position ID: WGc2gAXg2w0HAA Match ID: cAkAABAACAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.622
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +1.078
2.Double, take +1.137 +0.059
3.Double, pass +1.000 -0.078
Proper cube action:Too good to double, pass (57.3%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.7810.0770.002-0.2190.0190.000 +0.622 +1.078
Standard error0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.007
Player gnubg owns 2-cube0.7870.0790.002-0.2130.0190.000 +1.269 +1.137
Standard error0.0010.0020.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.006 0.007
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 846738511 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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