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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Money game cube action (Timothy Chow)
Date: Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 2:09 a.m.
OTB, it looked to me that if I safetied the blot and White rolled something average then on my next turn it would be D/P. In other words I was afraid of losing my market. So I doubled; my opponent took, and I rolled 2-1. Yuck. Eventually I did win, after a couple of jokers and anti-jokers on both sides that cancelled each other out.
The rollout suggests that it's ND/T, but that the decision is close. I also rolled out the position with my blot lifted to the midpoint, and the result was one of those bot anomalies: "Too good to double" in a money game with Jacoby and the cube centered. Not sure if this is a strong enough indication that the bot is misplaying things for us to distrust the first rollout.
tchow on roll, cube decision?
gnubg 150
tchow 128 Position ID: WGc2gAXg2w0jAA Match ID: cAkAAEAAEAAA
Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.500 Cubeful equities: 1. No double +0.859 2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.141 3. Double, take +0.838 -0.021 Proper cube action: No double, take (12.9%) Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.729 0.078 0.001 - 0.271 0.037 0.001 +0.500 +0.859 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.003 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.008 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.734 0.080 0.001 - 0.266 0.036 0.001 +1.025 +0.838 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.009 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.007 0.010 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845183267 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Here's the rollout of the variant position.
tchow on roll, cube decision?
gnubg 150
tchow 125 Position ID: WGc2gAXg2w0HAA Match ID: cAkAABAACAAA
Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.622 Cubeful equities: 1. No double +1.078 2. Double, take +1.137 +0.059 3. Double, pass +1.000 -0.078 Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (57.3%) Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.781 0.077 0.002 - 0.219 0.019 0.000 +0.622 +1.078 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.007 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.787 0.079 0.002 - 0.213 0.019 0.000 +1.269 +1.137 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.006 0.007 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 846738511 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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