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Holding game 54 payoffs

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 8:31 p.m.

In Response To: Layered rollouts (Nack Ballard)

Here's a RO. GNU 2,3,and 4 plies fail to find the best play here. All of the XG evaluation plies do pay off here. XGR gets this wrong, but XGR+ pays off.

The score (after 0 games) is: GNU_bg 0, user 0

Move number 8: user to play 45

GNU_bg	132
user	85
Position ID: 2G6DAQNt8wwGAA Match ID: QQkWAAAAAAAA

• user moves 13/9 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/9 13/8	+0.2334
			0.6686 0.0468 0.0004 - 0.3314 0.0238 0.0005 +0.3600 +0.2334 0.0008 0.0011 0.0001 - 0.0008 0.0006 0.0001 0.0019 0.0033
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847030159 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/4 8/3	+0.2170 ( -0.0164)
			0.6503 0.0740 0.0008 - 0.3497 0.0363 0.0010 +0.3381 +0.2170 0.0010 0.0012 0.0002 - 0.0010 0.0009 0.0001 0.0026 0.0037
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847030159 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	6/2 6/1	+0.2163 ( -0.0170)
			0.6542 0.0695 0.0006 - 0.3458 0.0374 0.0010 +0.3402 +0.2163 0.0011 0.0012 0.0001 - 0.0011 0.0009 0.0001 0.0026 0.0041
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847030159 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	0	13/4	+0.0104 ( -0.2230)
			0.5514 0.0871 0.0005 - 0.4486 0.0275 0.0000
	5	0	13/8 6/2	-0.0151 ( -0.2484)
			0.5457 0.0826 0.0005 - 0.4543 0.0351 0.0000

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 85 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-ABBBbD-B---bB---bbcbb----:1:-1:1:45:0:0:3:0:10
to play 45

1.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0.242
	Player: Opponent: 67.13% (G:4.99% B:0.07%) 32.87% (G:2.71% B:0.07%) Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.236...+0.248) Duration: 4 minutes 34 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/2 6/1	eq: +0.221 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 65.69% (G:6.61% B:0.13%) 34.31% (G:3.71% B:0.13%) Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.214...+0.228) Duration: 3 minutes 47 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/4 8/3	eq: +0.209 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 64.83% (G:7.38% B:0.16%) 35.17% (G:3.35% B:0.11%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.201...+0.217) Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12

Messages In This Thread

• Money game cube action
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 7:43 p.m.
  • Money game cube action
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 8:16 p.m.
    • Money game cube action
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 8:32 p.m.
  • Money game cube action
    Stick -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 9:02 p.m.
    • Money game cube action
      Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 9:23 p.m.
    • Money game cube action
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 10:00 p.m.
  • Money game cube action
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 4:55 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 2:09 a.m.
    • XG Rollout
      Petter Bengtsson -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 2:27 a.m.
    • Rollout -- another
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 22 January 2010, at 1:56 a.m.
  • Here's what's wrong with the RO's posted so far.
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 4:16 p.m.
    • Layered rollouts
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 5:02 p.m.
      • Holding game 54 payoffs
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 8:31 p.m.
        • Holding game 54 payoffs
          Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 9:47 p.m.
    • Here's what's wrong with the RO's posted so far.
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 10:26 p.m.
  • XG RO with 4 ply cube
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 4:18 p.m.
    • Very instructive, Neil and Nack! Thanks! *NM*
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 10:21 p.m.