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Money game 2-2 to play

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 1:20 p.m.

In Response To: Money game 2-2 to play (Nack Ballard)

In other words, if Blue is allowed to play only three 2s (24/22 13/11(2)), he definitely shouldn't; he should add 13/11 as a fourth deuce to gain the positive benefit outlined above.

So assuming we played the 22 illegally in my first diagram by not playing the last 2 and stayed on the 22pt and also not playing 13/11 our opponent's equity on roll is -.079. Playing it legally and playing the last deuce 13/11 our opponent's equity is -.093. It's very hard for me to say if this margin is from the spare on the 11pt being better placed or the simple fact that it's two more pips.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 133 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-B---bCBB-aBbC---cbe--A---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	47.00% (G: 10.54% B: 0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	53.00% (G: 7.66% B: 0.28%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	47.21% (G: 10.68% B: 0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	52.79% (G: 7.48% B: 0.30%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	-0.060
Double:	-0.045
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	-0.079
Double/Take:	-0.998 (-0.918)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+1.079)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
4341 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.009 (-0.088...-0.070)
Confidence Double:	± 0.027 (-1.024...-0.971)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes 55 seconds

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 131 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-B---bCBB-aCbB---cbe--A---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	46.85% (G: 10.67% B: 0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	53.15% (G: 8.64% B: 0.33%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	47.12% (G: 10.90% B: 0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	52.88% (G: 8.54% B: 0.35%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	-0.063
Double:	-0.066
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	-0.093
Double/Take:	-1.037 (-0.944)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+1.093)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
4379 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.009 (-0.102...-0.084)
Confidence Double:	± 0.028 (-1.065...-1.009)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes 43 seconds