[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OLM Mon. May 28th

Posted By: Philippe Michel
Date: Monday, 28 May 2007, at 12:57 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Mon. May 28th (Stick)

Double.

This is very much a last roll situation : we roll, he rolls and after that either he did hit us and wins or he didn't and usually loses (usually enough that getting there means losing our market by a lot).

Doublets and 6-small are almost safe ; that's 1/3rd of the cases already. The other rolls leave single or double shots. All in all, we will be hit much less than 50% of the time -- seldom enough to compensate the fact the the race is not totally safe. So we should double.

Assuming we are hit 30% of the time and are 85% favorite in the race if we double and are missed and 5% if we keep the cube and are hit, our equity (on a 1-cube) would be something like : no double : 0.7*1.00 - 0.3*0.95 ~= 0.4 double : 2 * (0.7*0.85 - 0.3*1.00) ~= 0.6

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.