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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 29 January 2010, at 3:52 p.m.

In Response To: Money game 2-2 to play (Timothy Chow)

OTB, I played 13/11(2) 24/20. I did not seriously consider 13/11(3) 24/22, thinking that it was "clear" that being ahead in the race, I should try to escape the back checker. Also I had the intuitive feeling that the spare checker was more awkwardly positioned on the 11-point than on the 13-point. However, especially after reading what Nack and Stick said, I think that my "intuitive feeling" here was a groundless prejudice, held over from other positions where it's important to keep a spare on the midpoint.

One other thing to note is that the back checker already has a "direct shot" at escaping (with 6's) on the 22-point; I think this diminishes somewhat the need to step up further. If we put Blue's back checker on the bar instead of the 24-point, then bar/21 13/11(2) is better than bar/23 13/11(3).

gnubg	149
tchow	139
Position ID: 4NvBBAOD2+ADIA Match ID: cAkJAEAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	24/22 13/11(3)	+0.095
			0.533 0.077 0.002 - 0.467 0.101 0.003 +0.041 +0.095 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847172539 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/20 13/11(2)	+0.064 ( -0.031)
			0.526 0.079 0.002 - 0.474 0.108 0.003 +0.022 +0.064 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847172539 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	24/22 13/11(2) 6/4	+0.023 ( -0.071)
			0.516 0.088 0.003 - 0.484 0.119 0.004 -0.001 +0.023 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847172539 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/9(2)	+0.022 ( -0.073)
			0.512 0.080 0.002 - 0.488 0.092 0.003 +0.012 +0.022 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847172539 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	24/22 13/7	+0.014 ( -0.081)
			0.510 0.083 0.002 - 0.490 0.100 0.003 +0.003 +0.014 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847172539 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Money game 2-2 to play
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 3:01 a.m.
  • Money game 2-2 to play
    Stick -- Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 4:39 a.m.
    • The flexibility of nactation
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 5:29 a.m.
      • The flexibility of nactation
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 10:46 a.m.
  • Money game 2-2 to play
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 9:54 a.m.
    • Money game 2-2 to play
      Stick -- Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 1:20 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 29 January 2010, at 3:52 p.m.
    • My first rollouts ever posted
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 5:00 a.m.
      • My first rollouts ever posted
        Stick -- Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 8:56 a.m.
      • My first rollouts ever posted
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 1:05 p.m.
      • My first rollouts ever posted
        Stick -- Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 6:26 p.m.
        • About rollout seed
          eXtreme Gammon -- Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 8:01 p.m.