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OLM Mon. May 28th

Posted By: Chase
Date: Monday, 28 May 2007, at 4:43 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Mon. May 28th (Misja)

Then suppose we leave a shot and white misses, how much of a favorite are we then?

I think we'd be a huge favorite. Let's say we roll 65 and play 10/5 10/7. White misses with 6/2 and plays 21/13. Our pip count lead would be 42 to 64.

Epc is hard to estimate in these types of positions, but I'd put our wastage at about 20 and White's at about 10, leaving epcs of 62 and 74 for Blue and White, respectively.

White's point of last take (22% gwc) would be about 69. He'd be 5 pips short of that. If we assume 2-2.5% per pip, that gives us between 88 and 92% wins.

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