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BGonline.org Forums
My first rollouts ever posted
Posted By: Stick In Response To: My first rollouts ever posted (Nack Ballard)
Date: Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 6:26 p.m.
Since the same seed wasn't used and also since the rollouts were only 5k I figured I'd go ahead and do this right and see what we have. 5k isn't enough in my opinion if you're looking to compare absolute equities. Even 15k still has a little give to it but it's a lot closer to the truth. I stopped the 24/20 play after 11k because it's the equity we're least concerned with and on top of that it lined up almost exactly with your GNU 5k.
Your 3 key equities from my rollouts are:
.080 - Equity if playing NO fourth deuce
.088 - Equity if playing 13/11 as fourth deuce
.063 - Equity if playing 22/20 as fourth deuce
This is a lot closer than your GNU results and leaves my questions dangling. Is the small difference because of the 2 pips or because 13/11 with the last deuce is a useful 2 to play?
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149Money session
Jacoby Beaverpip: 139
score: 0
is Player 1XGID=-B---bCBB-a-bE---cbe----A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 to play 22
1. Rollout1 24/22 13/11(3) eq: +0.088
Player:
Opponent:53.03% (G:8.79% B:0.32%)
46.97% (G:10.78% B:0.41%)Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.083...+0.093)
Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes2. Rollout2 24/20 13/11(2) eq: +0.063 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:52.55% (G:8.16% B:0.30%)
47.45% (G:11.06% B:0.41%)Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.056...+0.070)
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 10996 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149Money session
Jacoby Beaverpip: 141
score: 0
is Player 1XGID=-B---bCBB-a-bD-A-cbe----A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 to play 22
1. Rollout1 24/22 15/11 13/11 eq: +0.080
Player:
Opponent:52.98% (G:7.70% B:0.29%)
47.02% (G:10.47% B:0.38%)Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.075...+0.085)
Duration: 4 hours 02 minutes1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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