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White to play an awkward 2-1

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 10:06 p.m.

In Response To: White to play an awkward 2-1 (Timothy Chow)

Sorry, but I do not see anything awkward about this 21. Things could get awkward for Blue very quickly if he is silly enough to roll 55.

Many backgammon players think that Blue's chance of rolling the awkward 55 is 1/36. I strongly disagree, taking into account the fact that Blue will sometimes have more than one shake to roll the awkward 55.

Maybe you think it is perverted of me to even consider this sequence, but sometimes Blue will decide to make the serious mistake of rolling back-to-back double 5s. This would probably put him up even more in the race, unless, of course, White comes up with more than 40 pips in his next two rolls.

Many backgammon players think that Blue's chance of rolling back-to-back double 5s is 1/1296. I strongly disagree. Can you figure out the reason?

If I am White and Blue rolls the dreaded back-to-back double 5s, I do my best to put on a poker face and not show a smirk, as hard as that may be. However, I will confide in you that I am smirking big time on the inside. Believe it or not, some people have been known to whine when such a sequence occurs.

My play is 6/5 6/4. Even though Blue has a stronger board and White is leaving a two-blot double shot, I feel it is very unlikely that White will get closed out within the next few rolls.

Walter used to be good at telling us how many legals plays there were in a position with a given number. In this position, I really cannot find any legal plays with 21 other than 6/5 6/4. Where is Walter when we really need him?

Someone said, "Put your checkers where they belong." Either the same someone or another someone said, "If you are already way behind in the race, it is not such a big deal if you get more guys hit."

Even if I knew for a fact that 6/5 6/4 was a big-time whopper, I would still make this play, just because I would get enough delight out of seeing my opponent roll back-to-back double 5s and hoping for it (even though it rarely occurs) to compensate me for the financial loss of equity.

I firmly believe that the dice gods give whiners back-to-back double 5s in this position much more frequently than they give back-to-back double 5s to well-behaved players.

Messages In This Thread

• White to play an awkward 2-1
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 9:14 p.m.
  • White to play an awkward 2-1
    TheProdigy -- Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 9:38 p.m.
    • White to play an awkward 2-1
      christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 9:44 p.m.
  • White to play an awkward 2-1
    christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 9:39 p.m.
  • White to play an awkward 2-1
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 9:40 p.m.
  • White to play an awkward 2-1
    Stick -- Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 9:41 p.m.
  • White to play an awkward 2-1
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 9:45 p.m.
  • White to play an awkward 2-1
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 10:06 p.m.
  • White to play an awkward 2-1
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 12:33 a.m.
  • White to play an awkward 2-1
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 12:40 a.m.
  • OTB and rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 1:34 a.m.
  • Naccelers -- another position for you
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 2:58 a.m.
    • Naccelers -- another position for you
      Petter Bengtsson -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 3:31 p.m.
    • Naccelers -- another position for you
      Lucky Jim -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 9:26 p.m.
    • Naccelers -- another position for you
      Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 1:09 p.m.