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Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 8:53 p.m.

In Response To: "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel) (Nack Ballard)

Note that I felt that Walter's table was also just a tad conservative. Here's some evdence to support that I think "Nack 57" is just a wee bit conservative.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 111 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 99 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=----BBDBCAA---aabcbdb-----:0:0:1:D:0:0:3:0:10
double to 2 take ?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	78.32% (G: 0.01% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.68% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	78.31% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.69% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.566
Double:	+1.132
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.872 (-0.121)
Double/Take:	+0.993
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.007)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10748 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.001 (+0.871...+0.873)
Confidence Double:	± 0.001 (+0.991...+0.994)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 53 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 110 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 98 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=----BBDCBAA---aabbcdb-----:0:0:1:D:0:0:3:0:10
double to 2 take ?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	78.51% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.49% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	78.48% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.52% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.570
Double:	+1.139
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.877 (-0.123)
Double/Take:	+1.002 (+0.002)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
9579 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.001 (+0.876...+0.878)
Confidence Double:	± 0.001 (+1.001...+1.004)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	99.9%
Duration: 45 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 69 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 61 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=---ABDE------------feb----:0:0:1:D:0:0:3:0:10
double to 2 take ?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	78.04% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.96% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	77.97% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.03% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.561
Double:	+1.119
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.839 (-0.151)
Double/Take:	+0.991
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.009)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.001 (+0.839...+0.840)
Confidence Double:	± 0.001 (+0.990...+0.992)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 53 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 68 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 60 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--A-BDE------------fdc----:0:0:1:D:0:0:3:0:10
double to 2 take ?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	78.09% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.91% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	78.02% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.98% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.562
Double:	+1.121
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.840 (-0.155)
Double/Take:	+0.995
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.005)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.001 (+0.839...+0.841)
Confidence Double:	± 0.001 (+0.994...+0.996)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12

Messages In This Thread

• "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
  Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 4:30 p.m.
  • "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
    KenB -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 5:43 p.m.
    • "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 7:39 p.m.
  • "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
    David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 5:54 p.m.
    • "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 11:13 p.m.
  • "Nack 57" rule -- new race formula (for both traditional and Naccel)
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 6:26 p.m.
  • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 8:53 p.m.
    • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 9:15 p.m.
    • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 9:31 p.m.
      • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 9:55 p.m.
        • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 1:51 a.m.
      • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
        Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 11:47 p.m.
        • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
          Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 12:16 a.m.
        • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
          Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 12:32 a.m.
      • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
        Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:00 a.m.
        • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
          Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:52 a.m.
          • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
            David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 2:30 p.m.
            • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
              Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 4:07 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 4:23 p.m.
                • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                  David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 4:24 p.m.
                • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:18 p.m.
                  • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                    Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 10:54 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:40 p.m.
            • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
              Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:18 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:33 p.m.
                • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                  David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 9:12 p.m.
                • Number of checkers represented at lower counts
                  Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 9:38 p.m.
                  • Number of checkers represented at lower counts
                    David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 10:28 p.m.
                  • Number of checkers represented at lower counts
                    Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 11:05 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:42 p.m.
                • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                  Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 9:55 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:43 p.m.
              • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
                Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 10:13 p.m.
            • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
              Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 6:49 a.m.
              • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                rambiz -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 7:37 a.m.
                • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                  mtuhtan -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 7:45 a.m.
                • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                  Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 9:01 a.m.
                • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                  Tom Keith -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 12:57 p.m.
                  • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                    neilkaz -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 3:33 p.m.
                  • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                    Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 5:32 p.m.
              • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                David Rockwell -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 3:20 p.m.
              • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                Bill Patterson -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 3:40 p.m.
              • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                Bob Koca -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 4:21 p.m.
                • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                  Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 4:44 p.m.
                  • Link to file
                    Tom Keith -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 5:49 p.m.
                    • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                      Taper_Mike -- Friday, 1 July 2011, at 12:48 a.m.
              • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 5:42 p.m.
                • Ideal Racing Positions - Tables Available
                  Tom Keith -- Thursday, 23 June 2011, at 5:59 p.m.
          • Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts
            neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 3:43 p.m.
            • Testing subtracting 32 on the low end of pip count range
              neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 4:20 p.m.
            • 124 vs 138 pips..subtracting 32 is good
              neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:13 p.m.
              • 124 vs 138 pips..subtracting 32 is good
                David Rockwell -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:46 p.m.
                • 124 vs 138 pips..subtracting 32 is good
                  Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:09 p.m.
              • 123 vs 137 probably a bare pass
                neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 6:39 p.m.
                • 123 vs 137 with mid pt contact
                  neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 7:10 p.m.
                  • 123 vs 137 normal looking position
                    neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:12 p.m.
                  • 123 vs 137 with mid pt contact
                    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:41 p.m.
                    • 123 vs 137 with mid pt contact
                      neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:48 p.m.
            • Extending higher.. 137 vs 152 pips
              neilkaz -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 3:48 a.m.
              • Extending higher.. 137 vs 152 pips
                Nack Ballard -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 4:40 a.m.
                • Extending higher.. 137 vs 152 pips
                  neilkaz -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 7:15 p.m.
    • Perspective (on gold standard and N57)
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 2:56 a.m.
      • Perspective (on gold standard and N57)
        jdg -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 2:54 p.m.
    • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
      Neil Robins -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
      • GNU RO of my 61-69 pip pos is same
        neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 7:35 p.m.
        • GNU RO of my 61-69 pip pos is same
          Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 7:48 p.m.
          • GNU RO of my 61-69 pip pos is same..and
            neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 7:58 p.m.
            • 61-69 no VR
              neilkaz -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 12:22 a.m.
      • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
        eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:56 p.m.
        • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
          Neil Robins -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 9:31 p.m.
          • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
            neilkaz -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 12:19 a.m.
          • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
            eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 1:32 a.m.
            • Can you trust these XG rollouts?
              Neil Robins -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 3:05 a.m.