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Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:40 p.m.

In Response To: Very nice, but just a tad conservative for raw pip counts (Timothy Chow)

"I think it will be very rare for two non-contact race positions A and B that have the same exact epc values on both sides to have different cube actions, unless the epc is small (less than 40, say)."

I can get some pretty significant differences even with epc's as high as 50.

14 on ace vs 14 on the ace is a thin DT with each side having Trice counts of 50.00. Correct DT action gives equity of .527 and cubeless win % of 68.2%

14 on ace vs 0 1 1 1 2 4 is farily far from a double even though each side again has Trice counts of 50.00. Doubling is a .056 error. Correct no double gives equity of .481 and cubeless win % is 65.4

0 1 1 1 2 4 vs 14 on ace is also fairly far from a double (.056 error) Equity after correct no double of .441. Cubeless win % is 65.1

The variability in number of rolls to bear off is important. Greater variability (for either side) helps the trailer.

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