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Bearoff, take or dropp?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 29 May 2007, at 4:37 p.m.

In Response To: Bearoff, take or dropp? (M Oscarson)

My OtB thinking:

On doublets alone Blue wins (11/12)*(1/6) = 11/72 which is about halfway between 1/6 and 1/7, so call it 15% wins.

White's 4-1 (5.5%) is even a cash for Blue! Now we're up to 20.5%.

What about White's 2-1? Blue has a redouble (White a Take). Same is true (but for lesser Blue equity) with a 3-1 roll.

A Robertie rule-of-thumb is to treat a proper redouble as a winner at the lower cube level (i.e. count its full value in the current take decision). That means adding in 2-1 alone puts you at 26%. 3-1 is a bonus.

There are other winning sequences for Blue, but since it's a money game you only need to reach 25% to justify taking.

Take.

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