Bearoff, take or dropp?
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: Bearoff, take or dropp? (Chuck Bower)
Date: Tuesday, 29 May 2007, at 7:28 p.m.
In Response To: Bearoff, take or dropp? (Chuck Bower)
A Robertie rule-of-thumb is to treat a proper redouble as a winner at the lower cube level (i.e. count its full value in the current take decision). That means adding in 2-1 alone puts you at 26%. 3-1 is a bonus.
This rule is for "normal" redoubles. Here you're redoubling while barely above the 50% line. So your expectation after White rolls 31 is going to be pretty minimal, particularly since White can then redouble if Blue doesn't roll doubles. 21 is a somewhat better since White can't redouble but it's still overcompensating a bit.
I agree with the take, though. Blue is well better than 25% here.
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