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65R 54S 62?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 9 March 2010, at 7:48 a.m.

In Response To: 65R 54S 62? (neilkaz)

I prefer 65R-54S-53 (to 65R-54S-62) as a position to roll out. The reason is that you have the same two options (running or hitting), while you also have a third option: making the 3pt.

Averaging some Snowie and Gnu data:

54S-53 is [H P40 R90]

The pre-escape of a back checker makes a huge difference: 65R-54S-53 reverses the H/P spread by .074 and alters the H/R spread by .087, to

65R-54S-53 [P H34 R37]

That's only a truncated rollout, but it's in the ball park. Your 65R-54S-62 full rollout of [R H14] suggests that the trunc is astray in that comparison by .017.

Sorry I didn't get to your post earlier. In case you want more XG data, I recommend you start over with 65R-54S-53, so that you have the cost-free option of adding P (now or later). That is, from a information perspective, it is less effective to roll out 65R-54S-62 instead.

Nack

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