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BGonline.org Forums
2nd Moves
Posted By: Marty Storer In Response To: 2nd Moves (Keene)
Date: Thursday, 31 May 2007, at 9:44 p.m.
8/7(2) trades 8 point without forward blot, plus useful split, for 7 point with forward direct shot plus no split. Bad trade IMNSHO.
Not only that. In Modern Backgammon terms, 8/7(2) is too committal to a forward-going game plan. How so? Simple: If opponent misses on your 8 point, you have to worry about the blot for another turn. Yes, you're 50-50 to cover the 8 or make the 4, but you're obliged to do something about the blot either way. If you can't cover, you usually have to lift, or leave the blot hanging again. After 6/5(2) 24/22, you haven't committed yourself nearly as much. Not only are you free from worry about a sudden 17-pip setback, but you're free to concentrate on either side of the board as the dice dictate.
So I strongly doubt your rollout will show some relatively small difference between the plays. It will be much in favor of 6/5(2) 24/22. I'll bet the overall ranking among plausible plays will be the same as Chase's (given reasonable settings etc.).
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