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Rollout

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 1 June 2007, at 5:50 p.m.

In Response To: Bear-in -- which crossover is best? (Daniel Murphy)

15/12 is only third best here. 7/6 is a perfect ace. If Blue rolls a six, it will play just fine from the 15 or 14 point. But the difference in equity is small.

The score (after 2 games) is: White 2, Blue 2 (match to 7 points)

Move number 27: Blue to play 12

White72


1X1X2X3X2X3X2X '1X2O ' '

1O2O2O2O3O2O1O ' ' ' ' '

Blue83

Position ID: tdtNAABtuwUYAA Match ID: cInoACAAEAAA

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.011)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.409)

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 15/13 7/6 -0.9073
0.22440.00000.0000-0.77560.00000.0000 -0.5513 -0.9073
0.00010.00000.0000-0.00010.00000.0000 0.0002 0.0018
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
926 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1064606877 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 15/14 7/5 -0.9175 ( -0.0102)
0.22210.00000.0000-0.77790.00000.0000 -0.5558 -0.9175
0.00010.00000.0000-0.00010.00000.0000 0.0002 0.0018
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
926 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1064606877 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 15/12 -0.9183 ( -0.0110)
0.22190.00000.0000-0.77810.00000.0000 -0.5562 -0.9183
0.00010.00000.0000-0.00010.00000.0000 0.0002 0.0019
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
926 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1064606877 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


Annotation
1. Cubeful 2-ply 15/13 7/6 Eq.: -0.8962

0.2247 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.7753 0.0000 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Cubeful 2-ply 15/14 7/5 Eq.: -0.9061 ( -0.0099)

0.2226 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.7774 0.0000 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3. Cubeful 2-ply 15/12 Eq.: -0.9082 ( -0.0120)

0.2221 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.7779 0.0000 0.0000

2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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