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43S 61 RO

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 3 April 2010, at 8:38 p.m.

In Response To: 43S 61 RO (jdg)

Any discussion/theory as to why?

Why which? That a less vast majority play 43S-61P, or that fewer people play opening 43S?

I'll assume you're asking the latter. It has to do with the evolution of the bot's rollout results. The only JF (Jellyfish) result I can find is [U D8 S11 Z13]. I suspect other JF rollouts did not favor U (or people chose to discount U anyway) or I would have seen it played more, and if U is ignored then that leaves [D S3 Z5].

Snowie-4 is [D S5 Z8 U11], and earlier releases of Snowie were at least as strong on S as Snowie-4.

Then Gnu came along, and the opening 43 result posted on this site is [D Z6 S16 U21]. I believe this big jump in (error size) margin from .005 from .016 greatly contributed to the general perception that 43S is not so hot.

Now XG has come along. 3-ply is [D Z6 S10 U14] and 4-ply is [D Z5 S12]. XG makes S look better than Gnu makes it, but also cements the notion that S is inferior to D and Z.

I think 43S is still a perfectly reasonable opening play. (Bot average) value is -.010 or -.011. Currently my values show 52D, 51$, 63R, 41$, 32Z, 54D and 43U (which are on my list of the 28 strong opening plays -- better than -.02 and therefore an emergence as the best play in a future long bot rollout is not entirely out of the realm of possibility) to all be weaker than 43S. I think 43S is about on par with 32D.

It is also worth noting that Gnu's rollouts show 43S to be competitive/tied at DMP and GS -- [Z U2 D4 S5] 46k and [Z S3 U6 D10] 20k, respectively. I would expect XG's DMP and GS rollouts to show S to be at least that strong.

My short answer is that more people pay attention to the Gnu (money) rollouts on this site than they do to rollouts that are not posted, so there is a general perception that opening 43S is weaker than it actually is. It's a fine play.

[Nactation key for opening 43: D = Down (13/10 13/9), S = Split (24/20 13/10), Z = reverse split (24/21 13/9), U = Up (24/21 24/20).]

Nack

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