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BGonline.org Forums
Poker Skill - Luck Analysis
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Poker Skill - Luck Analysis (Stanley E. Richards)
Date: Saturday, 2 June 2007, at 8:09 p.m.
1. People frequently post their stats in rec.gambling.poker wanting a critique of their play based on those statistics. If they've posted statistical summaries of 5,000, even 10,000 hands they generally get told that there's not enough data. This suggests to me that 1,773- and 272-hand sessions aren't going to tell you too much besides what you already know, which is that if you won you were probably lucky, and if you lost you probably weren't -- Won$WSF = 40% is high, Won$WSF = 29% is low .. but it's higher than some winning players' percentage: it's only one variable and doesn't mean much out of context or in any one session.
2. With regard to skill indicators (what's important, what they should be),if you google rec.gambling.poker for
win WSP
you'll see some responses worth reading. Particularly in the thread "can't beat .50-1 LHE, need advice" see the responses by Zidane Vidor, whom I recognize as a frequent and sensible poster) and qqqxxxyyyzzz2000, whom I don't recognize but seems to make sense in this thread.
3. One stat that you didn't post and is important is your VP$IP. But let me quote from a post I saved quite a while ago:
"I have played 6-max exclusively now for over a year at 10/20 - 30/60. I've been able to keep extensive track of hands played at the Party Poker 15/30 6-max game. I think I must have about 80% of hands played in poker tracker. Back then it was easy to track because there were only 3 tables.
"Winning players have a flops seen % of anywhere between 20% - 55%. Preflop raising % anywhere between 5% - 30%. Most of the winning players seem to cluster around just under 40% of flops seen and about 17% preflop raising but I want to emphasize that many of the biggest winners have much different stats."
Since the poster is talking about shorthanded $10/20 - $30/60 games, the flops seen and preflop raising percentages aren't applicable to your full table and presumably low stakes games. I'd emphasize, though, the poster's phrase following his use of the word emphasize: there's more than one way to win.
Google a phrase to bring up the original post.
4. Just about any question you can think of about poker -- at least nearly any I can think of -- has been asked and answered repeatedly in rec.gambling.poker. The newsgroup archive is a phenomenal and free resource.
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