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RO of that bad 4 cube pass

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 9 April 2010, at 4:33 p.m.

In Response To: RO of that bad 4 cube pass (neilkaz)

OK...feel like I already responded to this but I'll do so again.

Perry's e-mail did not go unnoticed as we shared it with Mochy and others on our team. However, if anyone has tried to implement all the things outlined there, they will find that it becomes exceedingly difficult to do. My guess is no one on our team even knew how to do a Kleinman count, let alone what to do with one once they had it. Gammon counts and GVs on a 4-cube are similar...I don't even know what I would do with that information if I had it.

However, we did implement some of the suggestions. The upshot was that Mochy & I were responsible for figuring out the match equities & takepoints.

The 4-cube pass was not the result of a couple people speaking up and others just going along. Falafel quickly felt it was a pass, true. However, the rest of us didn't act immediately. Naturally Mochy & I started going through the calculations a couple of rolls before the Danes recubed. When we came up with the takepoint, I said it was about 20%. Mochy said he thought it was higher (of course Falafel had already said he thought it was a pass).

If I had said 17% I would have certainly been much more on the taking side, and my guess is Stick & Mochy would also. Of course if we all agreed Falafel & others would have gone along with us. But it's very easy to make a mistake when you think we need to win 20% of the games, especially as we only win about 20.4% anyway.

This was not an arithmetical error, but a problem with my method of calculating the TP. I will look into this some more in my spare time.

I object to the contention that we did not organize or mesh well together. In practice sessions we averaged around 2.0 on XG or just under. In the final we also played 2.0. If someone thinks they can put together a team that plays significantly better then I'd like to see it.

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