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BGonline.org Forums
Excessive criticism?
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: Excessive criticism? (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Saturday, 10 April 2010, at 11:25 a.m.
I guess I should clarify: I came up with more or less the right numbers for the take point: namely, our normal takepoint on g11 is 24%, with fully live it's 15.5%, with absolutely perfect recube it's 14% [I came up with 24%, 16%, and 14%...probably I should have shaded toward 19%, but when Mochy said he thought it was higher I shaded toward 20%]. Also I noted that our gammons were working mostly one-way but virtually non-existent and I noted that our GV on a 4-cube or 8-cube was lower than 1. There were 2 problems:
1) I misjudged how powerful our recube vig was. I thought that since, as Stick pointed out, our board was going to collapse, our recubes were a bit crippled. I still thought that we had "normal" recube power for this score, i.e., a somewhat better recube than for most money positions. GNU and XG, however, seem to be working out massive recube vig.
2) R-K gives us a substantially lower takepoint than g11.
In spite of all this I still felt that we had a close take needing to win 20%. However I was very uncertain and thought that passing could be no more than a small error. And, I also thought that we had a small edge against the Danish team.
Backgammon is such an easy game in hindsight.
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