| |
BGonline.org Forums
OLM Sun. June 3rd - Cube
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: OLM Sun. June 3rd - Cube (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 3 June 2007, at 3:01 p.m.
OK..lets look at this position and assess whether Stick could take for money ?
I don't think he can since he so often cracks as soon as he enters and we have a spare to play for a while after we enter, if we cannot hop. His game isn't hopeless and sometimes he can win a somewhat busted or busted 12 backgame, but it is too gammonish to take for money.
Noting that I clearly would pass this for money, I now feel justified in strongly thinking about cubing to 4 here, in spite of our lead.
OK some relevant ME's now. (duh tied is 50%) If Stick passes we lead 6-0/15=74% If he takes and loses we lead 8-0/15+82% if he takes and wins 50% thus he risks 8 to gain 24 and can take with the typical 25%. (This would seem to imply that we should reship, but lets look further).
So what is going on with Stick holding a 4 cube at this score (assuming he takes it)? Well if Stick is gammoned on 4 we have 95% from 12-0/15 so winning a G gains us 13% whereas the single game for Stick with the cube on 4 is worth a 32% swing in ME (82-50) so OUR GV with the cube on 4 is 13/32 or .4 and with lots of our wins being G's this means Stick is closer to a take here. What about BG's with the cube on 4 ? Yummy....we win the match, but the BG only gains us 5% ME over the G, not useless, but not nearly as sexy as normal. We also win quite a few BG's from here as Stick will be sticking (LOL) around in our board trying to hit us since if he's G'd he's dry humped anyhow.
Based on my thoughts and some math concerning our G and BG wins here what I feel is a definate money pass looks like it is a borderline take for Stick (and this is without considering his tremendous recube power !)
OK lets consider Stick's potential recube to 8, and this is extremely important and more important than most experts had realized, (even in the very late 1990's early 2000's).
Our TP with the cube sent back to 8.. pass=50% we take and win 95% we take and lose 30% so we risk 20 to gain 45% so our TP is 20/65 = a bit over 30% and we have almost no recube vig since Stick's TP on a 16 cube is 5%. Even in a straight race we won't have a take at 8 unless we can win 30%. When Stick rewhips he risks an added loss of 13% ME to capture and added gain of 20%. Clearly Stick will rewhip much faster than for money.
I won't dwell much on gammons when the cube is on 8, but Stick's are still very useful, while our help our overall MWC very little.
So here we have a position where I think, that due to some muting of our G's and esp.BG's, Stick might be able to eek out a take with NORMAL recube vig. Here, Stick's recube vig is so potent when compared to normal, that I honestly feel it is somewhat best to wait.
ND here where Stick and other experts have tons of time to figure out much of what I just did. OTB I double another WC player and hope they pass (or perhaps I have underestimated my pos).
ND .. neilkaz ..
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.