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Luck

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Sunday, 11 April 2010, at 2:52 p.m.

In Response To: Longest Message Ever - Nordic 2010 (Stick)

Stick wrote:

  • dmp 1 - MCG 1.7, Thomas 1.9, MCG wins
  • dmp 2 - MCG 0.7, Thomas 1.4, MCG wins
  • dmp 3 - MCG 1.8, Thomas 2.5, MCG wins *(-27.16, -26.81)
  • dmp 4 - MCG 1.5, Thomas 2.7, Thomas wins
  • dmp 5 - MCG 1.1, Thomas 2.7, MCG wins
  • dmp 6 - MCG 1.4, Thomas 0.0, MCG wins
  • dmp 7 - MCG 1.1, Thomas 0.5, Thomas wins

This is the first instance where we see the player having the worst luck winning in dmp 3. You'll note however that the luck is razor close so it's no real surprise.

I couldn't believe it, repeated the luck analysis for Match 3 in gnubg, and found MCG was luckier: MCG -18.8, Thomas -47.9. No idea what went wrong in your analysis.

  • Michy 2.5, Sander 5.9, Michy wins**
Michy was able to overcome the luck factor in this match which swung heavily enough in Sander's favor.

Here I think it's worth pointing out that luck as measured in MWC was heavily in favor of Michy. It seems Sander luckboxed only when little was at stake.

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