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Luck

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 11 April 2010, at 9:21 p.m.

In Response To: Luck (Timothy Chow)

Assume that Fave is a 60:40 favorite against Dog.

I reasoned thusly:

50% of the time, Fave will get the better of the luck. Since he also plays better, he will win.

50% of the time, Dog will get luckier. Of these times, Dog will win 40% (that's where all his wins come from) and Fave will win 10%.

Therefore, when Fave is 60:40, the player that gets the better of the luck wins (50% + 40%) = 90%.

Nack

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