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BGonline.org Forums
Longest Message Ever - Nordic 2010
Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer In Response To: Longest Message Ever - Nordic 2010 (Stick)
Date: Monday, 12 April 2010, at 12:57 p.m.
Posting error rates of the sort you're doing here doesn't make much sense for individual matches. It might do over a larger run of matches, but for the individual matches you should look at the actual accumulated MWC loss due to errors (or something like that).
You do in fact state the reason yourself, in your description of how to play speedgammon! Make some small errors when it doesn't count for much, than make the right decision at the most crucial points in the match. A plyaer who's able to spend his thinking time like that, would see a higher normalized error-rate, but a lower total MWC loss. Which is why that should be the number listed for individual match performances.
For a player running out of time, the MWC loss is obvious - that should be added manually!
It could be fun to see the cumulative MWC loss for each side, weighted in with the "points" worth for that particular match!
Only then can you say if the "right" team won the challenge.
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As per the Danes being able to meet and train as much as they like and knowing each others game completely, I think you're a bit off. I understand why you'd make such an assumption, but they really haven't played a lot together these guys - they were playing in different eras, and different places. One valid point though is that Morty knows them all, more or less. So even though Marc has never played Mads, Gus or Thomas, who has never played Mads and...etc. Trabolt only plays in DK during the Easter (for the last couple of years), Marc started to play backgammon after Mads and Gus was "retired" to poker... You know!
Morty knew them all to some extend, but I think you're over-emphasizing the fact (and to many people it sounds much like the yada-yada-yada you put in later!).
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On the discussions of luck, we have to remember, that a 90% favorite who wins, should be considered lucky! He gets more (1.0) than he could expect (0.95) - which is really what Nack is saying... The interesting part here, is the correlation between play-errors measured in total MWC and winning the match!
If you say someone is a 60-40 favorite in a given match, you have included luck in that figure to begin with - hence Nack's ability to "solve" back his luck equation...
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Anyway, thanks for a long post Stick - even though some parts come across as handwash/mental masturbation - I think it's awesome that you put so much effort into explaining your feelings, decisions and process! Also it's great that the event will leave so much for the BG community (recorded matches, new format, analysis, etc.), which you carry a large part of!
And like Christian said, it was a pleasure to see you guys IRL in Copenhagen, you, MCG, and the others! Nice to be able to put a face on a name.
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