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World's incorrect 14-away/6-away pass: Analysis

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 13 April 2010, at 11:19 p.m.

In Response To: World's incorrect 14-away/6-away pass: Analysis (Timothy Chow)

Estimating gammon losses is something that top players have gotten pretty good at with practice, so I don't see why estimating the frequency of takable redoubles, and the win/loss breakdown afterwards, can't also be something one can get good at.

I think part of the issue is that knowing how often a redouble is offered and taken does not give me an intuitive understanding of recube vig.

For example suppose we have a redouble after rolling an ace if Denmark does nothing special. In that case the fact that there is a RD/T does not seem pertinent since it's a huge take and borderline redouble and we are still huge dogs in the game. This doesn't seem to differentiate from games where we offer a takeable recube at around the 50-65% mark (or even an untakeable cube at close to the 65% mark). We can get substantial value out of the cube whether or not a recube is taken (and conversely, we may not get substantial value out of the cube whether or not a recube is taken).

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