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World's incorrect 14-away/8-away pass: Analysis

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 14 April 2010, at 12:17 a.m.

In Response To: World's incorrect 14-away/6-away pass: Analysis (Matt Cohn-Geier)

(I've corrected the typo in the subject line.)

MCG wrote:

I think part of the issue is that knowing how often a redouble is offered and taken does not give me an intuitive understanding of recube vig.

It's true that the raw numbers here may not always give you an intuitive understanding. However, there are a couple of things I would say in response.

1. My primary point is not that just by staring at GNU's statistics, you'll suddenly get a deeper understanding of recube vig. My primary point is that I suspect that training oneself to estimate effective gammons is going to improve one's cube ability. Even if you don't find GNU's statistics feature very helpful, and you prefer some other way of developing your intuition about recube vig, I would still suggest that using that intuition (regardless of how you acquired it) to arrive at an estimate of effective gammons, and calculating the takepoint accordingly, may yield more accurate decisions in these unusual, difficult positions than the traditional method.

2. Even in this particular case, I suspect that some useful information can be squeezed out of the bot's report that you win about half your takable recubes. Let me take your word for it that recubes that come after you immediately creep up with an ace and don't get hit are cases where you win far from half the time. What this tells me is that this is not where most of your takable recubes are coming from. They must come from somewhere else. Where they come from I don't know, but now at least I know I should be looking elsewhere.

One way or another, I think you're going to need to estimate your takable recubes since that is, after all, where your recube vig is coming from. My observation about effective gammons is just that once you do have an accurate estimate of those numbers, then you can accurately do a takepoint calculation (that takes recube vig into account automatically) that is exactly the same as the takepoint calculation you currently do, just with different numbers plugged in (effective gammons instead of actual gammons).

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