Let me take your word for it that recubes that come after you immediately creep up with an ace and don't get hit are cases where you win far from half the time.
Maybe I misspoke...I wasn't saying that they do, just that if we do recube at that point it doesn't make much sense to call it "recube vig" since we squeeze almost nothing out of the position that way. Usually we recube after we get hit loose and hit back followed by a fan (fairly efficient), or we escape and get missed (monster market loss).
One way or another, I think you're going to need to estimate your takable recubes since that is, after all, where your recube vig is coming from.
My point is that recube vig is independent of whether a recube is taken or dropped.
Viz.:
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0
Move number 7: White on roll, cube decision?
| White | 4 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 5 |
Position ID: EQAAMAAAAAAAAA Match ID: MAEAAAAAAAAA | |
• White doubles
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.5525 | ||
| 0.7762 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2238 0.0000 0.0000 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | Double, take | +0.8888 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.1112 |
| 3. | No double | +0.4444 | -0.4444 |
| Proper cube action: | Double, take | ||
Blue is never able to offer a takeable recube, but he still has significant recube vig (enough that he is able to take easily with only 22% GWC).