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World's incorrect 14-away/6-away pass: Analysis

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 14 April 2010, at 1:22 a.m.

In Response To: World's incorrect 14-away/6-away pass: Analysis (Daniel Murphy)

For me, at least, it was a surprise to learn that Team World wins nearly 25% of the time from the 4-cube position at this score. If you could guesstimate that, along with a live cube take point of ~15% and dead cube take point of ~22%, then the take decision would have been easier, no?

Actually I was pretty accurate with the numbers. I estimated 24% dead cube (about right on g11), 16% fully live (closer to 15.5% on g11), and I figured we won a little over 20% cubeless (also about right), which would have made it a very close decision. I thought it was a marginal take but wasn't going to argue something that Falafel & Stick apparently felt strongly about. What I didn't realize was that our takepoint is much closer to fully live than to dead cube.

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