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BPC Sunday Bi Monthly vs Carter

Posted By: Bryce
Date: Monday, 4 June 2007, at 2:35 p.m.

In Response To: BPC Sunday Bi Monthly vs Carter (neilkaz)

A guess...Carter has a pretty nice position which I believe wastes 7, for an EPC of 59. Neil has something like a 7-roll position for 50, except for 2 problems. (1) Not all doubles play completely efficiently, which maybe adds 2? (2) About half the time he rolls a 5 before a 6, wasting a roll, and as a result gains about 3.5. So I guess an EPC of about 55.5.

Trice's rule of thumb says LT is (rolls-3=4) pips away from the leader's pipcount, but here I think it's more like 5, putting it at 60.5. If I recall correctly you can redouble at 1 pip from last take and here we're at 1.5, plus white probably has a little more recube vig at the score. So, uh, ND/T?

I'll be happy with myself if half these numbers are right (:

-Bryce

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