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The Opening Bell Curve

Posted By: Bryce
Date: Monday, 4 June 2007, at 8:10 p.m.

In Response To: The Opening Bell Curve (Daniel Murphy)

Not sure if this is the answer to your question, but 20 games is probably enough to estimate the thing by a Gaussian. The population variance for Gregg's numbers above is .00413. Variances add up, so the total variance over 20 games would be 20*.00413=.0827, giving a standard deviation of .2876 for the sum.

So: 68% of the time, the swing due to opening rolls in 20 games will be less than .29 in some direction; 95% of the time the swing will be less than .58.

Maybe that helps? (If I did my numbers correctly)

-Bryce

Messages In This Thread

• The Opening Bell Curve
  Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 2:36 p.m.
  • The Opening Bell Curve
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 6:10 p.m.
    • The Opening Bell Curve
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 6:38 p.m.
      • The Opening Bell Curve
        Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 7:17 p.m.
        • The Opening Bell Curve
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 7:23 p.m.
          • The Opening Bell Curve
            Bryce -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 8:10 p.m.
            • The Opening Bell Curve
              Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 8:19 p.m.
              • The Opening Bell Curve
                Bryce -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 8:28 p.m.
  • The Opening Bell Curve
    Strato -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 11:41 p.m.
    • The Opening Bell Curve
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 1:27 a.m.
      • The Opening Bell Curve
        Chase -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 5:37 p.m.
        • The Opening Bell Curve
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 7:00 p.m.
          • The Opening Bell Curve
            Chase -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 8:24 p.m.
            • The Opening Bell Curve
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 11:08 p.m.
              • The Opening Bell Curve
                Chase -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 11:34 p.m.
        • The Opening Bell Curve
          Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 7:31 p.m.
  • The Opening Bell Curve
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 12:36 a.m.
    • PYHOOYA?
      DC-Ohio -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 12:38 a.m.
      • PYHOOYA?
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 12:52 a.m.
    • bell curve?
      garyo -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 5:03 p.m.
      • bell curve?
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 5:20 p.m.
        • bell curve?
          Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 6:05 p.m.
          • 1931 rules
            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 6:29 p.m.
  • "fair gammon??
    garyo -- Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 2:33 p.m.
  • The Opening Bell Curve (some more data)
    funk17 -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 3:24 p.m.