Help understanding the right play
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Help understanding the right play (nixo)
Date: Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 5:40 p.m.
In Response To: Help understanding the right play (nixo)
(Of course I don't know what the best play is. All I can do is tell you what I would be thinking over-the-board.)
Hitting on the 7-point looks automatic (you certainly don't want opp making that point, and there are other reasons, too). I see three ways to complete the move:
22/20 -- grab the best anchor.
13/11 -- bring down another cover/builder (and/or return hitter).
7/5 -- lift the slot.
Of the three, 7/5 should be the first to be rejected. Your barpoint would be a very valuable improvement. In addition, the blot there isn't particularly vulnerable for three reasons: 1) there aren't a huge number of shots from the bar (I count 11), 2) if you get hit, opp's board isn't very threatening and you might even use that checker right away to improve your defense, and 3) you are very likely to get quite a few return shots from the bar if you do get hit.
13/11 increases the cover rolls (assuming no hits by opp) from 24 to 29, a modest gain. In the meantime it pays off (on the 20-point) immediately to opp's 1-1 and 3-3 rolls. Even not counting these two, you may not get another chance to make the 20-point.
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