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CUBE Problem Here!!!

Posted By: Havard Raddum
Date: Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 3:19 a.m.

In Response To: CUBE Problem Here!!! (pekfrench)

High volatility calls for a cube, but is it too good? (assuming Jacoby doesn't apply) 1, 2, 3 and 4 cover, 5 and 6 does nothing, except for running home. The four numbers 55, 66 and 56 are disasters, leaving both blots for a second shot. The numbers that contain one 5 or 6 will leave one more indirect shot. Seems like half of the rolls are "market losers" (the market is probably lost already) and the other half leaves direct shot(s) for blue that gives him a chance to turn the game completely around. That/those shot(s) will have to be hit, so it looks like blue will hit a checker and win about 20% of the time. IIRC, white wins 40% gammon with two on the bar against a closed board and the rest of the blue checkers in home board. Here blue has two checkers in the outfield, but OTOH white isn't certain to pick up the other blot. Maybe these two considerations cancel each other so white has 40% gammon still? This makes it borderline too-good. Blue must have a pass, but as blue I wouldn't mind white playing on for gammon, and maybe give me the instant killer shot. If only for psychological reasons the times blue hit.

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