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So after taking Carter rolled boxes

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 11:18 a.m.

In Response To: So after taking Carter rolled boxes (neilkaz)

Ok, not much response on this one, I'll give it a go.

Blue's TP is ~24% so your CPW needs to be better than this. I estimate Blue to have a 5.5 roll position so Blue's EPC is probably round 5.5x7+1=39.5 (Trice). White's wastage is about 6.5 by my estimates (low wastage positions are between 5 and 7.5 typically, IIRC).

Blue: EPC ~ 39.5

White: EPC ~ 35.5

I use about 3% for each pip in a race this short and if the race were symmetric I would put White's chances around 67.5% CPW.

Since 67.5% + 12% = 79.5%, its too high for Blue to take this.

I pass.

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