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Rollouts from OLM

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 2:17 p.m.

Sorry to botch them altogether like this but since I didn't have time at the time to roll them out I'll post the interesting positions now, one after the other, in case anyone is still interested.

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 5: Readers to play 13

Stick152


2O ' ' ' '5X3X2X ' ' '4O

1X '1X '2O4O2O1O ' ' '3X

Readers156

Position ID: 4LvBASSwt+ABMA Match ID: cInsAQAAAAAA

Readers moves 24/23 6/3*

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/21 8/7 +0.067
0.5140.1400.005-0.4860.1300.005 +0.040 +0.065
0.0010.0020.000-0.0010.0020.000 0.004 0.009
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063599795 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 24/23 6/3* +0.046 ( -0.021)
0.5120.1590.007-0.4880.1550.009 +0.026 +0.045
0.0020.0020.001-0.0020.0020.001 0.005 0.011
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063599795 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 8/7 6/3* +0.016 ( -0.051)
0.5000.1600.006-0.5000.1370.008 +0.021 +0.016
0.0020.0020.001-0.0020.0020.001 0.006 0.014
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
819 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063599795 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R 24/23 8/5 -0.016 ( -0.083)
0.4960.1440.004-0.5040.1480.005 -0.012 -0.016
0.0020.0020.000-0.0020.0020.001 0.004 0.011
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
818 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063599795 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5 R 13/10 8/7 -0.032 ( -0.100)
0.4880.1580.006-0.5120.1480.006 -0.013 -0.032
0.0020.0020.001-0.0020.0020.001 0.006 0.013
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
818 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063599795 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 7: Readers to play 14

Stick147


1O1O '2X '3X3X2X ' ' '4O

 '1X1X '2O3O2O1O ' ' '3X

Readers174

Position ID: mLvBARSwW/AAVA Match ID: cInwAQAAAAAA

Readers moves bar/24 8/4. At the time I thought this was a must hit. You simply can't allow me free reign and all the other plays suck so bad it to me was the only choice.

Alert: bad move ( -0.097)

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/24 6/2* -0.721
0.3600.0810.005-0.6400.2780.041 -0.525 -0.699
0.0040.0020.001-0.0040.0050.004 0.014 0.032
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1154 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1065044060 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R bar/24 13/9 -0.775 ( -0.053)
0.3600.0770.004-0.6400.2980.036 -0.545 -0.751
0.0040.0020.000-0.0040.0040.003 0.012 0.029
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1153 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1065044060 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R bar/24 8/4 -0.818 ( -0.097)
0.3410.0780.005-0.6590.2710.029 -0.548 -0.793
0.0050.0030.002-0.0050.0060.005 0.019 0.058
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1065044060 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R bar/20 -0.844 ( -0.123)
0.3480.0720.003-0.6520.2980.028 -0.565 -0.819
0.0060.0030.001-0.0060.0070.005 0.020 0.049
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1065044060 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 9: Stick doubles to 2

Stick147


2O1O '2X '3X3X2X ' ' '4O

 '1X1X1O2O3O2O ' ' ' '3X

Readers169

Position ID: aDfwADSYu8EBFA Match ID: MBngAQAAAAAA

Readers accepts

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.523(Money: +0.514)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.787
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.213
3.No double +0.717 -0.071
Proper cube action:Double, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.6530.2670.025-0.3470.0790.004 +0.523 +0.717
Standard error0.0040.0040.003-0.0040.0020.001 0.012 0.030
Player Readers owns 2-cube0.6580.2700.029-0.3420.0780.005 +1.104 +0.787
Standard error0.0050.0060.005-0.0050.0030.002 0.038 0.058
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1065044060 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 11: Readers to play 66

Stick144


2O1O '2X2X2X2X2X ' ' '4O

 '1X1X1O2O3O2O ' ' ' '3X

Readers169

Position ID: 2LbBARRoN/AANA Match ID: UQn7AQAAAAAA

Readers moves 13/1(2)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.374)

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/1(2) -1.029
0.1520.0290.001-0.8480.3750.033 -1.088 -1.029
0.0020.0010.000-0.0020.0040.002 0.007 0.009
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
853 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062109104 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 13/7(4) -1.031 ( -0.002)
0.1470.0210.001-0.8530.3580.032 -1.088 -1.031
0.0030.0010.000-0.0030.0040.002 0.008 0.010
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
853 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062109104 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 39: Readers on roll, cube decision?

Stick72


1X2X4X3X2X2X ' ' ' ' ' '

4O5O2O1X2O ' ' ' '2O ' '

Readers50

Position ID: 7d0GAATvm8EAAA Match ID: UQngAQAAAAAA

Readers doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.381(Money: +0.382)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.667
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.333
3.No double +0.548 -0.120
Proper cube action:Redouble, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player Readers owns 2-cube0.6980.0040.000-0.3020.0170.000 +0.381 +0.548
Standard error0.0010.0000.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.001 0.002
Player Stick owns 4-cube0.7000.0030.000-0.3000.0170.000 +0.788 +0.667
Standard error0.0010.0000.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.002 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061797099 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


The score (after 1 game) is: Stick 0, Readers 4 (match to 15 points)

Move number 12: Readers to play 31

Stick147


1O ' '2X2X2X2X2X2X '1O4O

1X1X1X2O2O2O '2O ' '1O '

Readers147

Position ID: 2LYNACrYZuQFIA Match ID: cInlAQAAIAAA

Readers moves 14/11 13/12

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 14/11 13/12 -0.049
0.5120.1500.008-0.4880.1610.008 +0.002 -0.049
0.0020.0020.001-0.0020.0020.001 0.005 0.012
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061701256 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 13/10 11/10 -0.075 ( -0.026)
0.5050.1440.006-0.4950.1570.008 -0.014 -0.075
0.0020.0020.001-0.0020.0020.001 0.005 0.012
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061701256 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


The score (after 1 game) is: Stick 0, Readers 4 (match to 15 points)

Move number 16: Stick doubles to 2

Stick138


2O ' '2X2X2X2X2X2X ' '2O

1X1X '2O2O2O '2O1O '2O1X

Readers151

Position ID: 2GaZATDYtg0BKA Match ID: MBngAQAAIAAA

Readers accepts. OTB I bet you'd get a fair amount of people to drop this. [in fact OTB I probably cube a roll sooner, even though the prime v. prime struggle wasn't enough in my favor to do so, I think I'd draw a fair amount of passes]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.459(Money: +0.442)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.741
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.259
3.No double +0.676 -0.065
Proper cube action:Double, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.6490.2200.018-0.3510.0890.004 +0.459 +0.676
Standard error0.0030.0030.001-0.0030.0020.000 0.007 0.019
Player Readers owns 2-cube0.6470.2190.018-0.3530.0870.006 +0.934 +0.741
Standard error0.0030.0030.001-0.0030.0020.001 0.018 0.027
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
702 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061701256 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


The score (after 1 game) is: Stick 0, Readers 4 (match to 15 points)

Move number 34: Readers to play 45

Stick160


 ' '2O3X2X2X2X2X '1O ' '

2X1X2O2O3O2O2O ' ' ' ' '

Readers139

Position ID: uG0DAFpstwECRg Match ID: UQn2AQAAIAAA

Readers cannot move. Neil explained it far better than I could but again, in practice how many of your opponent's are going to look as deeply as Neil did? Worth giving it a whirl if your opponent isn't a strong player.

Alert: double decision marked doubtful

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.695(Money: +0.747)
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.778
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.222
3.Double, take +0.702 -0.075
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (25.2%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player Readers owns 2-cube0.7080.3590.051-0.2920.0700.008 +0.695 +0.778
Standard error0.0050.0050.005-0.0050.0030.004 0.014 0.024
Player Stick owns 4-cube0.7060.3690.094-0.2940.0730.012 +1.168 +0.702
Standard error0.0050.0060.008-0.0050.0030.004 0.027 0.039
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
286 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061797099 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 

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