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OLM Su 04/25/10

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Monday, 26 April 2010, at 10:59 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 04/25/10 (Daniel Murphy)

In a straight race, I estimate White wins 78% - 1.5%*((124+12+2)-133) = 70.5%

Alternatively, one could use the Kleinman count. With the pipcount at 124-133, D = 13, S = 253 (both adjusted by 4 for the person on roll). Then K = D^2/S = 169/253 = 2/3 (pretty close!). Then using W = 0.5 + 0.267*sqrt(2/3) = 0.5 + 0.267 * 0.81 which is about 71%

I'm ballparking a lot of stuff, but all of that I can do in my head (theoretically). For instance, I know sqrt(2/3) is about 0.81 because I know that 81^2 = 6561, so sqrt(0.666...) is approximately (and a bit more than) 0.81. No doubt somebody else has a better way. =)

Ah, just before I posted... (4/5)^2 = 16/25 = 0.64, so sqrt(0.64) = 0.8... thus sqrt(0.66) is a smidge more, maybe 0.81. THAT'S the way to do it. =)

JLee

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