Rogue Reference Position
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Rogue Reference Position (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 28 April 2010, at 7:19 p.m.
In Response To: Rogue Reference Position (Stick)
Well, I thought I knew this reference position, which I thought was a 0.9 take. The adjustments I tried to make were as follows: White is better because he's not on the bar and has a made 4-point. White's outfield blot may be a wash because it's an extra target but it's also an extra builder. Blue is better because he has an extra checker in the zone and has already split his back checkers. I thought Blue's advantages were more significant but probably my big mistake is underestimating the importance of White being on the bar versus not being on the bar.
Even after your hints I'm still inclined to double, though. Perhaps this is a case where the Jacoby rule actually makes a difference? I'm more used to the Jacoby rule being in effect, which I think encourages slightly earlier doubling in volatile positions like this one.
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