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The Opening Bell Curve (some more data)

Posted By: funk17
Date: Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 3:24 p.m.

In Response To: The Opening Bell Curve (Daniel Murphy)

Here are some more data from the 12134 moneygames in my database.

Cubeless equities (cleq, cleqf, cleqo) are calculated by taking gnu's 2ply
cubeless equity in case of a drop. Cubeful equities (cfeq, cfeqf, cfeqo) simply
aggregate the actual result of a game. For comparison I have included
Tom Keith's cubeless equities (cltk) and Stick's cubefull equities (cfstick).
cleqf are my cubeless equities when winning the opening roll, cleqo are those of
my opponents, likewise for cfeqf and cfeqo. #r, #rf, #ro give the number of rolls.

On average winning the opening roll gains a cubeful equity of 0,1245. This is
a fairly substantial advantage. However, this advantage is sort of neutralized
by the skill difference; the opponents even manage to have -0,3367 when winning
the opening roll.

 

      cleq     cltk     cfeq    cfstick     #r    cleqf     cleqo    cfeqf     cfeqo   #rf   #ro 

12 -0,0081   0,0088    0,0334    0,0216    808   0,1749   -0,1866   0,5388   -0,4596   399   409 

13  0,1322   0,1670    0,1866              804   0,3187   -0,0488   0,7222   -0,3332   396   408 

14 -0,0253   0,0024   -0,0235   -0,0025    766   0,1541   -0,2056   0,4505   -0,5000   384   382 

15 -0,0431   0,0056   -0,0565    0,0057    796   0,1209   -0,2014   0,3836   -0,4814   391   405 

16  0,1324   0,1035    0,2131              840   0,2571    0,0146   0,6985   -0,2453   408   432 

23  0,0212   0,0053    0,0921    0,0061    836   0,1777   -0,1353   0,5024   -0,3182   418   418 

24  0,1159   0,1234    0,1788              811   0,2677   -0,0268   0,7379   -0,3469   393   418 

25  0,0330   0,0032    0,1028    0,0052    759   0,1757   -0,1178   0,5282   -0,3468   390   369 

26 -0,0152   0,0066    0,0612    0,0176    850   0,2134   -0,2302   0,7767   -0,6118   412   438 

34  0,0820   0,0125    0,1459    0,0101    802   0,2433   -0,0927   0,5540   -0,2961   417   385 

35  0,0427   0,0638    0,0491    0,0856    795   0,1944   -0,1164   0,4177   -0,3376   407   388 

36  0,1125   0,0072    0,2113    0,0205    814   0,2445   -0,0368   0,6273   -0,2592   432   382 

45  0,0814   0,0155    0,0975    0,0265    800   0,2258   -0,0712   0,4428   -0,2673   411   389 

46  0,0497   0,0102    0,1929    0,0142    845   0,1785   -0,0844   0,5313   -0,1594   431   414 

56  0,1844   0,0545    0,3676              808   0,3142    0,0507   0,7927   -0,0703   410   398 

all 0,0600   0,0393    0,1245            12134   0,2177   -0,0994   0,5809   -0,3367  6099  6035 

Messages In This Thread

• The Opening Bell Curve
  Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 2:36 p.m.
  • The Opening Bell Curve
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 6:10 p.m.
    • The Opening Bell Curve
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 6:38 p.m.
      • The Opening Bell Curve
        Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 7:17 p.m.
        • The Opening Bell Curve
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 7:23 p.m.
          • The Opening Bell Curve
            Bryce -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 8:10 p.m.
            • The Opening Bell Curve
              Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 8:19 p.m.
              • The Opening Bell Curve
                Bryce -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 8:28 p.m.
  • The Opening Bell Curve
    Strato -- Monday, 4 June 2007, at 11:41 p.m.
    • The Opening Bell Curve
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 1:27 a.m.
      • The Opening Bell Curve
        Chase -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 5:37 p.m.
        • The Opening Bell Curve
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 7:00 p.m.
          • The Opening Bell Curve
            Chase -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 8:24 p.m.
            • The Opening Bell Curve
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 11:08 p.m.
              • The Opening Bell Curve
                Chase -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 11:34 p.m.
        • The Opening Bell Curve
          Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 7:31 p.m.
  • The Opening Bell Curve
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 12:36 a.m.
    • PYHOOYA?
      DC-Ohio -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 12:38 a.m.
      • PYHOOYA?
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 12:52 a.m.
    • bell curve?
      garyo -- Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 5:03 p.m.
      • bell curve?
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 5:20 p.m.
        • bell curve?
          Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 6:05 p.m.
          • 1931 rules
            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 6:29 p.m.
  • "fair gammon??
    garyo -- Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 2:33 p.m.
  • The Opening Bell Curve (some more data)
    funk17 -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 3:24 p.m.