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WHITE cube action?
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: WHITE cube action? (DC-Ohio)
Date: Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 3:25 p.m.
ND/T.
Closed board wastes about 10. White is a little better than that, since he doesn't have 2 checkers on the 1 and 2 points. Let's say he wastes 8 or 8.5, so epc of 62-62.5.
Blue is mostly in an 8-roll position (epc 57), although somewhat worse, because all checkers are not on the ace point. For example, if Blue's next roll is 32, then he is fairly likely to miss with a 4, and 22 doesn't save him a roll. But I doubt he can be 7 pips worse off than an 8-roll position, which would put him at 64.
Point of last take: around epc of 70. It's somewhat worse than this, because Blue's position is low variance. Still, I don't think that White can overcome this deficit. Unadjusted, White would need Blue to have an epc of 67 to double, and his epc is between 60 and 64. Adjustments would make this closer but I don't think they'd make up the difference.
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