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WHITE cube action?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 4:47 p.m.

In Response To: WHITE cube action? (DC-Ohio)

For starters, with this many points remaining in the match (and no gammon mulitplier) the initial double should be $-like.

I'm not very good with EPC yet, particularly for a hybrid position like Blue's.

Ward (though not great for these kinds of positions) goes something like this --

Blue: 39 (pipcount) +2 (checker outside crossover) +2 (more open points than opp) +6 (three checkers too many on the acepoint) +2 (two checkers too many on the 2-point) = 51.

White: 54 (pipcount) -4 (two checkers borne off) = 50.

Now switch to Kleinman -- on roll, White leads 46-51 so 0.50 + 0.27*diff/sqrt(sum) = 0.50 + 0.27*5/sqrt(97) = 0.50 + 0.27*5/9.85 or about 64% cgwc. That's not enough for an initial cube. (This certainly feels low to me, but even adding a few percent looks like a No Double.)

N+T.

Messages In This Thread

• WHITE cube action?
  DC-Ohio -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 1:06 p.m.
  • WHITE cube action?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 3:25 p.m.
  • WHITE cube action?
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 4:47 p.m.
  • Using my methods..
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 10:41 p.m.