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Rollout (s)

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 10 June 2007, at 11:54 a.m.

In Response To: Natalie Merchant Everybody (Stick)

Rollouts could do with some lengthening but I was honestly surprised this isn't a cube yet. About every 'normal' sequence is a d/t next turn so I suppose it's due to the low volatility more than anything else.

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0

Move number 5: Readers on roll, cube decision?

Stick125


1O1O '3X1O5X3X2X '1O ' '

 '2X2O2O2O2O2O ' ' ' '1O

Readers144

Position ID: ON8NABhs2yCCKA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• Readers doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.473
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.779
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.221
3.Double, take +0.735 -0.044
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (16.6%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player Readers owns 2-cube0.6830.1870.006-0.3170.0840.003 +0.473 +0.779
Standard error0.0030.0030.000-0.0030.0020.001 0.006 0.016
Player Stick owns 4-cube0.6880.1920.007-0.3120.0830.003 +0.974 +0.735
Standard error0.0030.0040.001-0.0030.0020.001 0.015 0.023
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
382 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061398828 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Cube action equity
RolloutMoney equity:0.493
0.7% 19.9% 68.5% 31.5% 8.0% 0.3%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.493 ±0.015,
- live cube no redouble: 0.802 ±0.031,
- live cube redouble take: 0.766 ±0.042.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
648 games (equiv. 24539 games),
played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0.550 at 16 pts,
random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1.No redouble 0.791
2.Redouble, take 0.756(-0.035)
3.Redouble, pass 1.000(+0.209)
Proper cube action: 14%
Live cube
1.No redouble 0.802
2.Redouble, take 0.766(-0.037)
3.Redouble, pass 1.000(+0.198)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take16%

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