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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout (s)
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Natalie Merchant Everybody (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 10 June 2007, at 11:54 a.m.
Rollouts could do with some lengthening but I was honestly surprised this isn't a cube yet. About every 'normal' sequence is a d/t next turn so I suppose it's due to the low volatility more than anything else.
The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0
Move number 5: Readers on roll, cube decision?
Stick 125
Readers 144 Position ID: ON8NABhs2yCCKA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA
• Readers doubles
Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.473 Cubeful equities: 1. No double +0.779 2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.221 3. Double, take +0.735 -0.044 Proper cube action: No redouble, take (16.6%) Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Readers owns 2-cube 0.683 0.187 0.006 - 0.317 0.084 0.003 +0.473 +0.779 Standard error 0.003 0.003 0.000 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.016 Player Stick owns 4-cube 0.688 0.192 0.007 - 0.312 0.083 0.003 +0.974 +0.735 Standard error 0.003 0.004 0.001 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.015 0.023 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 382 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061398828 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Cube action equity Rollout Money equity: 0.493 0.7% 19.9% 68.5% 31.5% 8.0% 0.3% 95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0.493 ±0.015,
- live cube no redouble: 0.802 ±0.031,
- live cube redouble take: 0.766 ±0.042.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
648 games (equiv. 24539 games),
played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0.550 at 16 pts,
random seed, with race database.Evaluations 1. No redouble 0.791 2. Redouble, take 0.756 (-0.035) 3. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.209) Proper cube action: 14% Live cube 1. No redouble 0.802 2. Redouble, take 0.766 (-0.037) 3. Redouble, pass 1.000 (+0.198) Proper cube action: No redouble, take 16%
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