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BK's forever - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Keene
Date: Monday, 11 June 2007, at 1:52 p.m.

In Response To: BK's forever (Keene)

So, the good news is that my auto-play of 8/4(2)* is no longer a 0.264 error (and boy was I really shocked to see that), but a mere 0.074.

Although I am curious as to why the most obvious (in my mind) play is wrong by such a distance. at 2-away/7-away, when GG is really obvious to me at least, why does GNU consider the safer, fewer gammons play to be superior? Would that change as the opponents score increased? (i.e. as the equity lost by losing a single or gammon loss decreases due to the MET used). I am going to look at that.

The score (after 3 games) is: TimeFrustratedOpponent 0, kilted 5 (match to 7 points)

Move number 35: kilted to play 22

TimeFrustratedOpponent	109
kilted	92
Position ID: s3MSGATtbAYLAA Match ID: cAnpAAAAKAAA

• kilted moves 8/4*(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.573	(Money: +0.475)
	0.688 0.150 0.003 - 0.312 0.054 0.001
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.533
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.467
3.	Double, take	-0.226	-0.759
Proper cube action:		No double, take (61.9%)

Alert: very bad move ( -0.074)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.445)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	14/12 6/4*(2) 3/1	+1.136
			0.847 0.275 0.009 - 0.153 0.023 0.001 +1.136 0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004
			Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062037968 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	8/4*(2)	+1.063 ( -0.074)
			0.758 0.374 0.015 - 0.242 0.082 0.002 +1.063 0.001 0.002 0.002 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.005
			Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062037968 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	0	13/11 6/4*(2) 3/1	+0.901 ( -0.236)
			0.793 0.306 0.003 - 0.207 0.053 0.003
	4	0	8/4*/2 3/1	+0.888 ( -0.248)
			0.779 0.278 0.002 - 0.221 0.039 0.001
	5	0	14/8 3/1	+0.781 ( -0.356)
			0.746 0.097 0.001 - 0.254 0.012 0.000

Messages In This Thread

• BK's forever
  Keene -- Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 10:32 p.m.
  • BK's forever
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 3:00 a.m.
    • BK's forever
      Marty Storer -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 12:02 p.m.
  • BK's forever
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 4:57 p.m.
  • BK's forever
    garyo -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 5:51 p.m.
  • BK's forever
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 10:52 p.m.
    • BK's forever
      Marty Storer -- Friday, 8 June 2007, at 2:00 p.m.
      • BK's forever
        neilkaz -- Friday, 8 June 2007, at 4:30 p.m.
        • BK's forever
          Marty Storer -- Friday, 8 June 2007, at 5:04 p.m.
  • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
    Keene -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 1:52 p.m.
    • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
      Stick -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 1:57 p.m.
    • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 3:04 p.m.
      • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
        Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 4:00 p.m.
        • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
          Keene -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 5:19 p.m.
          • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
            Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 12 June 2007, at 9:23 a.m.
    • Bubble bursting cubeful rollout
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 5:40 p.m.
      • Bubble bursting cubeful rollout
        Keene -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 6:40 p.m.
        • There's always a bright side
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 6:48 p.m.
          • There's always a bright side
            Keene -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 8:12 p.m.