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BK's forever - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Keene
Date: Monday, 11 June 2007, at 5:19 p.m.

In Response To: BK's forever - ROLLOUT (Maik Stiebler)

So, after a quick n dirty rollout at 2 away/15 away, the error actually goes up. Scary. You would think that you would care less about single losses at that score than you would at -2,-7.

Odder and Odder.

Anyone have any suggestions? Or is my theory incorrect?

The score (after 0 games) is: TimeFrustratedOpponent 0, kilted 15 (match to 17 points)

Move number 3: kilted to play 22

TimeFrustratedOpponent	109
kilted	92
Position ID: s3MSGATtbAYLAA Match ID: cAkpAgAAeAAA

• kilted moves 8/4*(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.491	(Money: +0.469)
	0.687 0.147 0.003 - 0.313 0.054 0.001
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.409
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.591
3.	Double, take	-0.470	-0.879
Proper cube action:		No double, take (59.8%)

Alert: very bad move ( -0.111)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.408)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	14/12 6/4*(2) 3/1	+0.984
			0.842 0.278 0.008 - 0.158 0.023 0.001 +0.984 0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003
			Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062037968 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune
•	2	R	8/4*(2)	+0.874 ( -0.111)
			0.758 0.381 0.016 - 0.242 0.085 0.001 +0.874 0.001 0.002 0.002 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004
			Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062037968 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune
	3	2	13/11 6/4*(2) 3/1	+0.815 ( -0.169)
			0.793 0.307 0.006 - 0.207 0.057 0.003
	4	0	8/4*/2 3/1	+0.736 ( -0.248)
			0.779 0.278 0.002 - 0.221 0.039 0.001
	5	0	14/8 3/1	+0.648 ( -0.336)
			0.746 0.097 0.001 - 0.254 0.012 0.000

Messages In This Thread

• BK's forever
  Keene -- Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 10:32 p.m.
  • BK's forever
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 3:00 a.m.
    • BK's forever
      Marty Storer -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 12:02 p.m.
  • BK's forever
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 4:57 p.m.
  • BK's forever
    garyo -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 5:51 p.m.
  • BK's forever
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 7 June 2007, at 10:52 p.m.
    • BK's forever
      Marty Storer -- Friday, 8 June 2007, at 2:00 p.m.
      • BK's forever
        neilkaz -- Friday, 8 June 2007, at 4:30 p.m.
        • BK's forever
          Marty Storer -- Friday, 8 June 2007, at 5:04 p.m.
  • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
    Keene -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 1:52 p.m.
    • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
      Stick -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 1:57 p.m.
    • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 3:04 p.m.
      • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
        Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 4:00 p.m.
        • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
          Keene -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 5:19 p.m.
          • BK's forever - ROLLOUT
            Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 12 June 2007, at 9:23 a.m.
    • Bubble bursting cubeful rollout
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 5:40 p.m.
      • Bubble bursting cubeful rollout
        Keene -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 6:40 p.m.
        • There's always a bright side
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 6:48 p.m.
          • There's always a bright side
            Keene -- Monday, 11 June 2007, at 8:12 p.m.