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OLM Sat. June 16th

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Sunday, 17 June 2007, at 10:12 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sat. June 16th (Stick)

OTB I'd just play 13/10 to get max covers for the 8 point next turn.

Here we can allow taking some more time to investigate. After 13/10 Stick hits with 11, 21, 16, 26 - 7 numbers. After 18/15 he hits with 13, 23, 16, 26 - 8 numbers. However the quality of the hits aren't equal. The only really happy hit is 26 - after either play. On the other hand, the 11 and 21 hitters after 13/10 are fairly comfortable, whereas the 13 and 23 hitters require him to give up the mid point. Also 16 is more comfortable after 13/10 not requiring him to release the anchor to hit. Lastly, after a hit, particularily after 26 hit, if we should dance then the extra blot after 13/10 might mean something. Not much, though, but something.

So the hitting scenarios seem to favor 18/15 clearly by a small amount. If not hit, though, 13/10 gives 25 covers , and 18/15 gives 19. That is a considerable amount, however we might not need the covers, as the 5 prime in itself is very good - so how much do we really gain from completeing the 6-prime?

Last thing to consider, if any play would tend to be underestimated, it would be 18/15 - I think - at least my first impression was 13/10 clearly, but on fuurther inspection it seems to be a tossup. So I side with the underdog play:

18/15

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