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BGonline.org Forums
action double
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: action double (christian munk-christensen)
Date: Monday, 28 June 2010, at 10:20 p.m.
White's basic 2-cube takepoint is right around the normal 25%, 2-cube gammon values definitely favor the trailer ATS by roughly 73%/47%, and recube vig is reduced since Blue's 4-cube takepoint (except a last roll position) is ~ 16%.
How many g's for both sides here? Blue has 17 hitters, 9 of which hit twice and leave Blue a big fav to send 4 checkers back with good gammon chances. The gammon chances won't be anywhere near gin for Blue since he doesn't have enough checkers in the zone for a closeout. White therefore rates to anchor somewhere but with a lousy game since Blue will have slotted and then covered his 8 and/or 9-point (or maybe rolled well and made his 3 and/or 2-points) by the time White gets all his checkers in from the bar. If White hits a shot in the bearin/off, he'll have good chances to save the gammon, and he might even win if he can keep enough of his board together. It's also very possible for White to run off the gammon without hitting a shot since an anchor sometimes causes the opponent to bury checkers as he clears his outfield points. The single hit - fan sequences are also great for Blue but to a somewhat lesser extent since he might not start by hitting on the 23-point. If White enters and hits back, the game becomes very double-edged with roughly equal chances for both sides. I'll guess approx 7.5 gammons for Blue in these 17 games and about another 1.5 in the remaining 19 games. How about White's g's? They're a definite possibility after Blue's 16 dancing numbers or after a single hit - hit back sequence. Looks like around 6 g's in 36 games to me. Adding these g's to the equation raises White's takepoint to almost 36%.
How about cube ownership? Doesn't look like it'll be worth much here since White's favorable sequences will frequently leave him too good or too good and not good enough to redouble ATS. Maybe it's worth 2% which lowers the takepoint to around 34%.
White's chances are certainly > 34% here since he's a clear fav on the 16 dances, and roughly even on the 3 that enter without hitting or when he hits back after one of Blue's single hits. A dangerous but clear take in my book.
How about the double? Sure looks like a double to me: Lots of volatility, the opponent won't get much use out of the cube, and lots of people will pass (and maybe they should since it's a hard positon to evaluate).
D/T OTB and D/T QF.
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