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OLM Thurs. June 21st

Posted By: Chase
Date: Thursday, 21 June 2007, at 6:26 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Thurs. June 21st (Stick)

If we play safely, we'll lead 86-87. White has a few more pips of wastage, but will be on roll, so call it an even game if this were a straight race. The contact works both ways, but mostly favors us, I think. I guess we win 60% if we don't hit now.

If we put two on the bar, White hits back ~30%. He doesn't win all of those, but we don't win all the time we're missed either. I think the difference in these extra wins breaks our way, but let's call it even. That gives us 70% wins if we hit two, versus 60% if we play safely.

There's also gammons to consider. If we play safely, we hardly win any gammons, whereas hitting two will win quite a number of gammons.

Cube considerations are trickier, but racing cubes tend to be more efficient. We don't want to give White an efficient cube, so this also argues for the sharper play.

Swing away, Merrill.

10/9* 6/1*

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