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BGonline.org Forums
Another interesting cube
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: Another interesting cube (DC-Ohio)
Date: Thursday, 21 June 2007, at 2:02 p.m.
White's take point on a 4 cube: 22%ish. Better with recube vig. Total number of wins needed to take: something like 6 or 7 out of 36.
So let's count. All 6s except 61 leave a shot (9 numbers). 55, 54 leaves a shot. 44 leaves a shot. That's 13. 31, 21, and 11 (5 numbers) pick and pass, leaving 55 from the bar. The other 18 numbers leave White in a pretty desperate situation.
In 13 games, White wins a little less than 1/3 of the time. Let's say he wins 85% of 30%, or about 25% of those games. That's 3.25 games. Also, let's say that White's about 10% to win in all variations if he doesn't hit the immediate shot. Seems somewhat reasonable--Blue could leave a shot when clearing his 6 or 5 points, or White could roll 66 a couple times and win the race. Then in the other 70% of the 13 games, White wins 7%, or about 1 game, for 4.25 games out of 13.
In the 18 games where he doesn't get a shot, White wins about 2 games, for 6.25 games total.
In the other 5 games, give White all the wins with the 17-to-1 shot (he'll lose, on occasion, but he'll also gammon you for Crawford). That's .25 of a game, so 7 games. So my guess is White wins roughly 7.5 games out of 36 from here.
So should be a take. Is it a double? Should be, since Blue is quite likely to lose his market on the next exchange and White will be in a desperate situation. You'd rather not have the cube coming back to you on 8 when you can only use 5 points, but C'est la vie. 8-0 Crawford or 9-0 is a lot better than 6-0.
RD/T.
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