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Crawford backgame - part 4

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 23 June 2007, at 1:05 p.m.

In Response To: Crawford backgame - part 4 (Ian Dunstan)

Make a lovely prime that may not last, or give opponent 13/36 -- 36%! -- immediate numbers that probably win? I think Blue has to play 8/3* and step up 23/22. If Blue plays 8/3* 4/3, then estimating that Blue has 4 rolls to get out of White's homeboard seems optimistic. Assuming White fans, then

2 rolls immediately escape (1-6) but 6 rolls immediately crack your 6-prime (6-5, 6-4, 5-5, 4-4. 9 other rolls immediately advance 23/22, but Blue would be only a bare favorite (51.7%) to roll a 6 in the next two rolls (three in all). Blue'd also be a 66% favorite to roll a 6 in three rolls (four in all), but that's only if all else stays the same: sometimes Blue will have already broken the bar point, or the bar and the 6 point, and/or White has attacked Blue on Blue's 22 point.

35 should probably be played as a double hit

I think bar/22*/17 would be better. Five-primes are strong. If White double-hits and Blue rolls a 3 or 1-1, White loses (most of the time); White's 4-prime isn't much of an obstacle. If White plays bar/22*/16 and Blue rolls a 3, timing's on White's side -- Blue looks more likely to crack before White. And if Blue fans or enters on the ace or deuce, again with the two outfield checkers to play and a 5-prime, it looks like White has the stronger position

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