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APC

Posted By: Chase
Date: Tuesday, 26 June 2007, at 11:22 p.m.

In Response To: APC (Stick)

I'm not sure if White should take this. He's got decent timing, but he's so far behind that he probably only has 6-8% racing equity. (That may be a bit generous, but Blue will have to waste some pips.) Does White have enough hitting equity (~15%) to get him to his take point? I'm not sure. If Blue leaves a shot half the time, White is hitting ~16%. He should win most of those. Without doing any estimates, I'd have dropped this, but it looks like White does better than I imagined. I'll still pass, but I think it's close.

d/p

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